One-line thesis: One of the highest-quality software franchises in the world, down roughly 60% from its high and priced for AI to kill it, while the actual results show double-digit revenue growth, three engines compounding above 30%, and management buying back stock hand over fist. The debate is whether AI disintermediates tax and accounting, or whether confidence, compliance and human expertise keep the moat intact.
INTU-DOSSIER.md · Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · Q3 FY26 Fact Sheet [1] [2] [3]| Segment | Q3 revenue | YoY | % of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Business Solutions | $3,285M | +15% | 38% |
The QuickBooks engine. Online ecosystem revenue grew 19% (22% excluding Mailchimp). QuickBooks Online accounting revenue grew 22% on higher effective prices, customer growth and mix. The standout is mid-market: online ecosystem revenue for QuickBooks Advanced plus Intuit Enterprise Suite grew approximately 38%, with Enterprise Suite contracts up 37% quarter-over-quarter as the direct sales force scales ~30%. Within online services, money (payments, capital, Bill Pay) and payroll drove growth; total online payment volume grew 30% including Bill Pay (18% excluding it). The one soft spot inside the segment is Mailchimp, down slightly year-over-year and being rightsized. | |||
| Consumer — TurboTax | $4,364M | +7% | 51% |
Assisted up, low-end DIY down. The win: TurboTax Live (software plus a human expert) is expected to grow customers 38% and revenue 36% this year, reaching 53% of total TurboTax revenue, up 11 points. New assisted customers grew 29%, and retention in TurboTax Live rose 2 points. The miss: Intuit lost share in the most price-sensitive do-it-yourself segment, filers earning under $50,000. Sasan: “I'm constructively dissatisfied with our performance… We lost on price.” Total IRS filers were down ~30 basis points this season, a roughly 2-million-unit shortfall that hit the category leader. | |||
| Consumer — Credit Karma | $631M | +15% | 7% |
Recovered and compounding. Of the 15% growth, personal loans contributed 9 points, auto insurance 5 points and home loans 1 point. Credit Karma is increasingly the front door to tax: a 54% increase in filers who start in Credit Karma this year (up 25 points), with simple filers able to have up to 80% of their taxes done before they even open TurboTax. Average revenue per user is ~30% higher for customers using both TurboTax and Credit Karma. | |||
| Consumer — ProTax | $278M | ~0% | 3% |
| Total net revenue | $8,558M | +10% | 100% |
Q3 FY26 Fact Sheet · Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [2] [3]Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [3]Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [3]Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [3]| Moat type | Strength | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Switching costs | Strong | Accounting, payroll, payments and tax data are mission-critical and embedded in a business's operations; migrating carries real risk and disruption. |
| Data / network effects | Strong | ~10M businesses and ~1M accountants feed AI agents; accountants recommend QuickBooks and bring clients on, reinforcing the loop. |
| Brand / trust | Strong | Four decades of accuracy, compliance and security; "customers buy confidence." TurboTax and QuickBooks are category-defining brands. |
| Scale / intangibles | Strong | 80% gross margin and ~37% FCF margin reflect platform economics; the expert network is hard to replicate at scale. |
| Regulatory / liability | Medium | Tax and compliance complexity favors trusted incumbents; customers delegate liability. But governmental encroachment (free-file programs) is a tail risk. |
| AI substitution | The live threat | Generative AI could erode the simplest DIY and bookkeeping tasks. Intuit's defense is confidence, compliance, and embedding AI itself. |
INTU-DOSSIER.md · Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [1] [3]Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [3]| Lever | Recent action | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Buybacks | $1.6B repurchased in Q3, more than double a year earlier; first 3 quarters up over 60% YoY | Leaning in at the lows |
Sandeep: “We are leaning meaningfully into share repurchases this year… This reflects both our strong conviction in our long-term trajectory and our belief that our shares represent compelling value at current levels.” Intuit aims to be in the market every quarter. With the stock near multi-year lows, buybacks at ~10.7x free cash flow are highly accretive. | ||
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend raised 15% to $1.20/share | Growing, well covered |
| Restructuring | 17% headcount cut; majority of savings to the bottom line | Margin + EPS discipline |
| M&A / Mailchimp | Rightsizing Mailchimp for cash flow rather than selling into a weak software market | Pragmatic, value-focused |
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · Q3 FY26 Fact Sheet [2] [3]| Metric | 1Y | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth (Per Share) % | 28.70% | 18.60% | 18.40% | 18.50% |
| Revenue Growth (Per Share) % | 16.60% | 14.10% | 17.80% | 16.40% |
| EPS without NRI Growth % | 18.40% | 19.40% | 20.60% | 21.80% |
GuruFocus snapshot (2026-05-20) [4]| Metric | Current | 5Y Median |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin % | 79.96% | — |
| Operating Margin % | 27.47% | 23.66% |
| FCF Margin % | 36.87% | 32.30% |
GuruFocus snapshot · Q3 FY26 Fact Sheet [4] [2]| Metric | Current | 5Y Median |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC % | 14.55% | 11.97% |
Why ROIC understates the franchise. Reported ROIC (~14.5%) is held down by acquisition goodwill: Credit Karma (~$8bn) and Mailchimp (~$12bn) sit on the balance sheet at full cost (Goodwill-to-Asset 0.36). Strip the deal goodwill and the operating businesses earn far higher returns — visible in ROCE of 23% and 1-year and 3-year incremental returns on capital (ROIIC) of ~45% and ~27%. The weak point in this picture is the 5-year ROIIC of ~8%, which reflects the Mailchimp acquisition diluting incremental returns. That is the legitimate version of the "capital allocation" critique: organic returns are superb, but the largest deal has not yet earned its cost of capital. | ||
| ROCE % | 23.11% | 15.59% |
| ROE % | 23.19% | 16.60% |
GuruFocus snapshot (2026-05-20) [4]| Metric | Current |
|---|---|
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.33 |
| Cash-to-Debt | 1.22 |
| Current Ratio | 1.45 |
| Interest Coverage | 23.47 |
| Dividends per Share (TTM) | $4.64 |
| Stock Based Compensation (mm) | $2,039M |
| Free Cash Flow (mm) | $7,715M |
GuruFocus snapshot · Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [4] [3]| Multiple | Current | 10yr median | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| P / FCF | 10.7x | 31.8x | ~1/3 of its normal multiple |
| EV / FCF | 10.3x | — | Net cash narrows EV |
| EV / EBIT | 13.1x | — | Cheap on operating earnings |
| P / E (no NRI) | 12.9x | — | Multi-year low |
| FCF Yield | 9.50% | — | High for the quality |
GuruFocus snapshot (2026-05-20) [4]Two-stage model, 10% discount rate, 20-year horizon, off trailing FCF/share of $27.80. Current price ~$296.76.
| Stage | Growth rate | Years | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth stage | ~3% | 1–10 | ~$194 |
| Terminal stage | ~2% | 11–20 | ~$103 |
| Implied price | — | — | ~$297 |
INTU-DOSSIER.md · GuruFocus snapshot [1] [4]| Scenario | Growth yrs 1–10 | Terminal | Fair value | vs $296.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market implied | 3% | 2% | ~$297 | — |
| Bear | 0% | 2% | ~$243 | -18% |
| Base | 9.5% | 2% | ~$450 | +52% |
| Bull | 14% | 2% | ~$609 | +105% |
Two-stage DCF, 20-year horizon. Edit any input and the fair value recomputes live. Refresh the page to return to the base case.
Defaults: 9.5% growth yrs 1–10, 2% terminal yrs 11–20, 10% discount, $27.80 trailing FCF/share. The 9.5% base is roughly half Intuit's five-year FCF/share growth, a deliberate haircut for the AI risk. Live price refreshes from Yahoo on page load.
INTU-DOSSIER.md · GuruFocus snapshot [1] [4]Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · Q3 FY26 Fact Sheet [2] [3]Company information/Intuit/INTU-DOSSIER.mdLiving research-report source file, created 2026-06-07. Primary reference for qualitative content unless otherwise noted.Company information/Intuit/Q3 FY26 Fact Sheet External.pdfQ3 FY2026 fact sheet (May 20, 2026) — segment revenue and margin tables, guidance.Company information/Intuit/Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript.txtQ3 FY2026 earnings call, May 20, 2026 — management commentary on tax, AI, restructuring, capital allocation.GuruFocus snapshot (Financials 20.05.2026.txt)Per-share growth rates, returns on capital, margins, multiples, and balance-sheet ratios for Part 4 and Part 5.Company information/Intuit/2025 10k.pdf & Q3 2026.pdfFY2025 Form 10-K and Q3 FY2026 press release / 10-Q for business and segment definitions.This is one report in the PoorCharlie universe.
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