Wise plc (WISE) — PoorCharlie Research Report

Price £9.02 · today

Market cap $12,787M ~1.1bn shares (broadly flat; 25m buyback offsets options)

Enterprise value N/A Net cash; customer balances £29.4bn separate

Overall score 79 Strong · out of 100

Score breakdown

79/100

Strong

Moat

18/20

Scale Economies Shared compounder: 70+ regulatory licenses, 8 direct payment-system connections, 70% word-of-mouth acquisition. Each take-rate cut widens the cost moat against banks and challengers.

Management

17/20

Founder-CEO Kristo Käärmann with ~£4bn personal stake, 10-year framing, said-vs-delivered near-perfect. Only smudge: a small dual-listing timing slip and the 2021 HMRC late-filing fine.

Business risk

15/20

Take-rate cuts are strategic, not pressured. Stablecoins reframed as opportunity. Live risks: regulatory complexity, rate-sensitive above-1% interest income, US OCC charter still pending.

Key ratios

17/20

Underlying income +18% (+24% in Q4 FY26), accelerating every quarter of FY26. ROIC ~99% per portfolio data. -3 because reported PBT margin was compressed by design from 22% to ~16%.

Valuation

12/20

~43x Underlying PBT and ~25.5x P/E at snapshot — near the top of the universe's multiple range, but the market is pricing ~25% PBT growth for a decade and Wise is delivering 18–24%. Bear (15%) = -45%. Base (20%) = ~0%. Bull (30%) = +40%. Hold-not-buy at current price; the growth has to keep printing. Score moves inversely with price.

0–39 Poor 40–59 Weak 60–74 Average 75–89 Strong 90–100 Exceptional

One-line thesis: Wise is building the global infrastructure monopoly for cross-border money movement using the Scale Economies Shared playbook — deliberately cutting take-rates to widen the cost moat, growing 18–24% on underlying income at 0.57% market share of a £32 trillion TAM. The business is exceptional; the price is full.

Part 1

Business Overview

1.1Business Model

Cross-border payments infrastructure founded 2011 by Estonian engineer Kristo Käärmann after he paid ~5% in hidden fees wiring GBP to EUR. Wise replaces correspondent banks with local-currency pools and matches payments internally — money never crosses a border.
Three product layers. Wise Account (personal), Wise Business (SMBs), and Wise Platform — the B2B infrastructure play where banks and fintechs embed Wise rails into their own products. Platform is the highest-leverage growth lane.
Direct national payment system access vs correspondent banking: each direct integration cuts cost and time per transfer. First non-bank in UK Faster Payments (~2017) and Japan's Zengin (Nov 2025). Backed by 70+ regulatory licenses across 160+ countries.
Scale Economies Shared playbook. Voluntary take-rate cuts widen the cost moat: lower price → more volume → more scale → lower unit cost. PBT margin is structurally capped at 13–16%; anything above gets reinvested into more cuts.
Word-of-mouth flywheel. Cheapest provider wins referrals; referrals lower CAC; lower CAC funds more take-rate cuts. The loop self-reinforces with scale.
Customer holdings as a deposit-like asset. Users park balances at Wise; the company earns interest on the float but only the first 1% of yield counts toward Underlying PBT. The rest is excluded from the valuation lens.
Revenue diversification beyond pure transfer fees — card spending, interest on balances, asset products. Cushions take-rate compression in the core line.
Why Underlying PBT, not FCF. Reported FCF is distorted by customer balances flowing through the business; Underlying PBT is the cleaner profit lens. All valuation in Part 5 uses it.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §1 ^[1]

1.2Revenue Sources

Line	FY2025	FY2026	YoY
Active customers	15.6m	18.9m	+21%
Cross-border volume	£145bn	£181.7bn	+25%
Customer holdings	~£21.5bn	£29.4bn	+37%
Underlying income	£1,362m	£1,609m	+18% (+19% cc)
Cross-border take-rate (avg)	~56bps	~52bps	-4bps (by design)
Instant transfers (Q4)	65%	75%	+10pp
Implied Underlying PBT	~£300m	~£257m	-14% (deliberate)

Q4 FY26 detail	Q4 FY25	Q4 FY26	YoY
Active customers	9.29m	11.29m	+22%
Cross-border volume	£39.1bn	£49.4bn	+26% (+27% cc)
Underlying income	£350.4m	£435.3m	+24%
Card and other revenue	£100.9m	£130.2m	+29%
Cross-border take-rate	0.53%	0.51%	-2bps

Acceleration, not deceleration Underlying income growth in FY26: Q1 +11%, Q2 +15%, Q3 +21%, Q4 +24%. Every quarter of FY26 was faster than the last. The H1 FY25 take-rate reset is now fully lapped and volume growth (25–27%) is compounding on a larger base.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §2 & §5 · WiseplcQ4FY26TradingUpdate(2).pdf ^{[1] [3]}

1.3Key Performance Indicators

Personal vs business split: 10.7m personal active (+21%) and 572K business active (+26%; volumes +35%). Personal scales for revenue; business scales for volume and stickiness.
Wise Platform now ~5% of total volume (H1 FY26), up from 4% six months earlier and 3% a year earlier. Targeted at 10% medium-term, 50% long-term — the deepest B2B optionality.
8 direct payment system integrations as of H1 FY26 (vs 6 a year earlier): UK Faster Payments, SEPA, Pix (Brazil), Zengin (Japan), NPP (Australia), InstaPay (Philippines), plus others. Australia going direct lifted instant transfers there from 24% to 83%.
75% of transfers instant (<20 seconds) in Q4 FY26, up from 65% a year earlier. Instant transfers correlate with retention.
NPS 69 — exceptional for financial services (industry average is 0–30). Direct read on word-of-mouth durability.
70% of new customer acquisition is word-of-mouth (near-zero CAC). Marketing payback held at 6 months even as H1 FY26 paid-marketing spend rose 59%.
0.57% of a £32 trillion TAM. 5% personal market share, ~1% SMB share. Penetration is the central long-term reason to own the stock.
25m share buyback program announced to offset employee option dilution; ~50% completed by H1 FY26 close.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §5 & §7 ^[1]

Part 2

Moat

2.1Industry Overview & Growth

Cross-border payments is a £32 trillion annual TAM dominated by correspondent banking. Traditional cost: 3–7% all-in fees buried in FX markup, 2–5 day settlement, no upfront disclosure.
Wise penetrates by holding local-currency pools in dozens of countries and matching internally. 75% of transfers now arrive in under 20 seconds.
Regulators increasingly let non-banks into payment rails. First non-bank in UK Faster Payments (~2017); first non-bank in Japan's Zengin (Nov 2025); Canada Payments membership Jan 2026; UAE Central Bank licence approved.
Stablecoins solve the easy problem (USD-to-USD). The hard problem (GBP-to-BRL, EUR-to-JPY) is exactly the multi-currency local-payment-system rails Wise built. If stablecoins grow, Wise is the regulated on/off ramp.
Platform is where the TAM expands. Embedding Wise rails into ~4,000 US banks and global enterprises turns Wise from a consumer brand into the underlying plumbing of cross-border banking.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §1 & §5 ^[1]

2.2Qualitative Competitor Analysis

Correspondent banks (HSBC, Citi, JPM, etc.)Incumbents

The legacy rails Wise is replacing. Built for institutional flows, not retail. Cost structure (3–7% all-in via FX markup) cannot match Wise's 51bps take-rate. Many are now Platform partners (UniCredit, Raiffeisen, Standard Chartered, Itáu) rather than competitors — they buy Wise rails instead of building.

Revolut (private)Tier 1

Closest consumer-fintech competitor in EMEA. Broader product surface (crypto, brokerage, banking), but less depth in payment-system integrations and licenses. Lacks the Platform B2B layer.

Western Union, Remitly, WorldRemitNiche

Remittance-focused with retail agent networks. Higher cost structure, slower settlement. Lose share in every market Wise enters direct.

Stablecoin issuers (Circle, Tether)Adjacent

Solve USD-to-USD movement; do not solve multi-currency local-payment-rail conversion. Wise positions itself as the regulated on/off ramp into local currencies and is partnering rather than competing.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §3 ^[1]

2.3Moat Analysis

Moat type	Strength	Evidence
Low-cost producer (SES)	Strong	67bps→51bps take-rate over 2yrs is a deliberate price weapon. Each cut compounds the cost gap vs banks and challengers.
Intangible assets (licenses)	Strong	70+ regulatory licenses across 160+ countries; multi-year regulatory investment that cannot be replicated quickly.
Scale / infrastructure	Strong	8 direct payment-system connections; first non-bank in UK Faster Payments, Japan Zengin. Australia direct lifted instant from 24% to 83%.
Switching costs	Medium	Multi-currency holdings, local account details (UK sort code, EU IBAN, US routing) and recurring use of card / interest. Holdings £29.4bn signals deep stickiness.
Network effects	Medium	70% word-of-mouth acquisition is a real demand-side network. Platform is a B2B network growing 3× group average.
Regulatory complexity	Medium	160+ country compliance burden is its own moat against AI-native challengers and new entrants.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §1 & §5 · WiseH1FY26AnalystPresentation.pdf ^{[1] [4]}

2.4Additional Moat Considerations

Selected from the 26-item framework. Items shown are the strongest supporting points and the most material concerns for Wise specifically.

YesFounder-led with skin in the gameKristo Käärmann co-founder & CEO; ~£4bn personal stake

YesScale Economies Shared67bps→51bps; every efficiency gain returned to customers

YesWord-of-mouth acquisition70% of new customers; 6-month paid-marketing payback

YesHigh ROIC~99% per portfolio data; asset-light infrastructure

YesLong runway0.57% of £32T TAM; 2% share = ~3.5× from here with no market growth

YesRevenue diversification41% of underlying income is non-cross-border (cards, interest, asset products)

YesCustomer-funded balance sheet£29.4bn customer holdings (+37%) trusted to the platform

ModRate-sensitive interest incomeAbove-1% interest £206m H1 FY26, fading as yields decline

ModRegulatory examination riskMMET consent order $4.2m (Jul 2025) resolved; future exams possible

ModFounder governance history2021 HMRC late-filing fine resolved; persists in some ESG screens

NoMargin of safety on valuation~43× Underlying PBT — highest in portfolio; no cushion

NoCapped explicit margin band13–16% Underlying PBT ceiling by design — current earnings look thin

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §5 & §6 · Meta analysis from poorcharlie.io.txt (framework) ^{[1] [8]}

Part 3

Management

3.1Leadership & Tenure

Kristo Käärmann — co-founder, CEO, director since 2011. Estonian engineer who built Wise after paying 5% in hidden fees to wire money. Personal stake ~£4bn — the largest skin-in-the-game founder profile in the universe.
Emmanuel Thomassin — CFO since October 2024, brought in as a “first hire” CFO with capacity-to-invest explicitly stated as a priority.
Founder voting control: Käärmann holds 186,078,489 Class A + 186,022,590 Class B Shares (Class B carries 9 votes each), giving 1,868,079,459 voting rights = 49.3% of total voting rights. Class B Shares are non-transferable, non-tradable, with no dividend rights — pure long-term lock-in.
Co-founder block: Notorious Ω (Taavet Hinrikus / Hooi Ling Tan related vehicle) holds 353,682,539 voting rights = 13.1%. Combined with Käärmann, founder-aligned voting power exceeds 62%.
NED skin-in-the-game: Alastair Rampell 38,549,643 Class A (via a16z funds + direct); David Wells (Chair) 96,720 Class A + 600,000 legacy options; Elizabeth Chambers 96,720 Class A; Terri Duhon 9,213 connected. NEDs are paid fees only, no LTIP participation.
Equity comp structure: Hybrid LTIP for CFO — 200% of salary in performance shares + 200% restricted shares, 3-year performance vesting (FY26+: weighted 40% relative TSR vs FTSE 100, 20% volume CAGR, 20% underlying PBT margin 13–16%, 20% NPS), 2-year post-vest holding. Executive shareholding requirement: 300% of salary within 5 years. Käärmann abstains from all variable pay.
FY25 insider transactions: David Wells exercised + sold 223,000 legacy options on 19 Jul 2024 (strike £0.62, sale £7.87) and sold 100,000 Class A on 18 Jul 2024; Rampell received 257,840 Class A distributed from a16z funds on 4 Apr 2025. No Käärmann sales disclosed.
Ten-year framing. Käärmann talks about decisions in terms of what they mean for the company in the next 10 years; never quarterly. “We're building the network for the world's money” is the verbatim phrase repeated on every call.
Price as mission, not lever. Käärmann (H1 FY26): “We amazingly see this working. We see more volume even coming up in the short term, let alone this economic moat that we're building.”
Historical: HMRC fined Käärmann publicly in 2021 for a late self-assessment filing. Resolved; not currently operational, but lingers in some ESG screens.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §3 · WiseFY2025AnnualReportAccounts.pdf pp.103–117 · Wise plc (WIZEY) Q2 2026 Earnings C.md ^{[1] [5] [6]}

3.2Capital Allocation History

No major M&A history — Wise has grown organically. Capital return is via buybacks (anti-dilution) plus reinvestment in pricing, hiring, marketing, and the dual listing.

Action	Year	Strategic role	Outcome
Direct LSE listing (no IPO)	2021	Public market access; avoid banker spread	Successful direct listing
Take-rate reset to 13–16% margin target	FY25	SES playbook — price cuts to widen moat	Volume +25% offset rate cut; income +18%
25m share buyback program	FY26	Offset employee option dilution	~50% complete by H1 close
Marketing spend +59% H1 FY26	FY26	Brand reinvestment (Canada, NZ, US, UK)	Customer adds +14%; payback held at 6 months
Nasdaq dual listing	2026	US institutional access; Platform credibility	Approved Jul 2025; expected May 11, 2026 (slight delay)
No dividends	ongoing	Reinvest at high ROIC	Correct math for growth-stage compounder

Track record Capital return is anti-dilutive only; the bulk of capital goes back into the SES flywheel. Margins are explicitly capped at 13–16% — anything above 16% gets reinvested. Cleanest capital allocation philosophy in the universe.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §3 & §5 ^[1]

3.3Said vs Delivered

Promise	When	Outcome	Consistent?
Reinvest FY25 margin surplus from 22% back to 13–16%	Owners Day Apr 25	FY26 guided ~16% (top of range); H1 FY26 came in at 16.3%	Yes
Take-rate cuts will drive volume that offsets revenue impact	H1 FY25	Volume +25% FY26 on take-rate down ~4bps; income still +18%	Yes
Underlying income to grow 15–20% cc mid-term	Ongoing	FY26 +19% cc; Q4 FY26 +24% — accelerating into range	Yes / beating
Platform 10% volume medium-term, 50% long-term	Owners Day 2025	3% → 4% → 5% over three consecutive reporting periods	On track
Complete Nasdaq dual listing around Q2 FY27	Jun 2025	Guided May 11, 2026 — slipped from original Q4 FY26 guide	Slight delay
MMET examination resolved; remediation on track	H1 FY26	$4.2m consent order paid; no further escalation	Yes
Marketing payback 6 months despite +59% spend	H1 FY26	Customer adds +14% H1 FY26 vs prior year; Australia CPA trending down	Yes
No material price adjustments in H2 FY26 — reset done	H1 FY26	Q3/Q4 take-rate held at 52bps then ticked down 1bp to 51bps	Yes

Verdict Käärmann and Thomassin say what they do and do what they say. The only near-miss is the dual listing timing slip, which is execution rather than strategy. The 13–16% margin band is being delivered exactly as guided despite the deliberate ~5pp compression.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §4 · WISEplcH1FY26Results.pdf ^{[1] [4]}

Part 4

Key Ratios

4.1Growth Rates

Metric	1Y	3Y CAGR	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR
FCF Growth (Per Share) %	56.80%	11.30%	24.70%	0%
Revenue Growth (Per Share) %	12.50%	45.80%	44.20%	0%
EPS without NRI Growth %	-5.50%	131.90%	102.20%	0%

Standout — Revenue compounding 44.20% over 5Y Revenue per share 5Y CAGR of 44.20% is exceptional (>20% benchmark) and the 3Y rate of 45.80% shows the Käärmann-era scale-economies-shared engine is still accelerating, not maturing.

Watch — 1Y EPS −5.50% reset Trailing-year EPS fell 5.50% as lower customer-balance interest income compressed reported earnings; underlying volumes still compounded, but it explains the optical stall against the 102.20% 5Y CAGR.

SourcePortfolio snapshot 30.05.2026.txt (GuruFocus export) ^[9]

4.2Margins

Metric	Current	5Y Growth Rate	5Y Median
Gross Margin %	72.85%	3.40%	N/A
Operating Margin %	27.47%	39.10%	15.65%
FCF Margin %	283.23%	N/A	396.54%

Note — FCF Margin Distortion WISE's reported FCF includes customer-balance interest income (£29bn+ in client funds) inflating the headline FCF margin to 283%. Use Underlying PBT for valuation, not FCF. See dossier guidance.

Standout — Operating margin +39.10% over 5Y Operating margin expanded from a 5Y median of 15.65% to 27.47% today, a structural mix shift on the back of fixed-cost leverage; the gain is real even after stripping the customer-balance FCF distortion.

SourcePortfolio snapshot 30.05.2026.txt ^[9]

4.3Capital Efficiency

Metric	Current	5Y Median
ROIC %	98.82%	33.80%
ROCE %	34.79%	26.52%
ROE %	29.02%	22.33%
Cash Conversion Ratio	13.72	34.31

ROIIC % (Return on Incremental Invested Capital)

Period	ROIIC %
1-Year	-24.69%
3-Year	201.09%
5-Year	129.10%

Standout — ROIC 98.82% with 3Y ROIIC 201.09% Current ROIC of 98.82% sits nearly triple its own 5Y median of 33.80%, and 3Y ROIIC of 201.09% is the highest in the universe; this is what an asset-light payments rail looks like once scale kicks in.

Watch — 1Y ROIIC −24.69% The one-year ROIIC turned negative because the latest year's incremental capital met a lower interest-income tailwind; over any 3Y+ window the marginal returns are still extraordinary.

SourcePortfolio snapshot 30.05.2026.txt ^[9]

4.4Balance Sheet Health

Metric	Current
Debt-to-Equity	0.21
Cash-to-Debt	49.38
Interest Coverage	30.38
Current Ratio	1.08

Standout — Fortress balance sheet Cash-to-Debt of 49.38 (vs >2 fortress threshold) and interest coverage of 30.38 put WISE in the safest bucket; D/E 0.21 is conservative for a regulated financial.

SourcePortfolio snapshot 30.05.2026.txt ^[9]

4.5Shareholder Returns & Other Metrics

Metric	Current
1-Year Dividend Growth Rate (Per Share) %	N/A
3-Year Dividend Growth Rate (Per Share) %	N/A
Dividends per Share (TTM)	£0
1-Year Share Buyback Ratio	N/A
3-Year Share Buyback Ratio	0.50
5-Year Share Buyback Ratio	-0.50
Goodwill-to-Asset %	0
Stock Based Compensation (mm)	£57.20M
Free Cash Flow (mm)	£5,293.50M

Watch — SBC ratio is misleading here SBC of £57.20M against headline FCF of £5,293.50M looks like a clean 1.1%, but the FCF denominator is inflated by customer balances; benchmark SBC against Underlying PBT instead.

Standout — Zero goodwill, organic compounder Goodwill-to-Asset of 0 confirms WISE has built its rail organically rather than through M&A; pair that with the 3Y buyback ratio of 0.50 and the float discipline reads cleaner than any acquisitive peer.

SourcePortfolio snapshot 30.05.2026.txt ^[9]

Part 5

Valuation

5.1Current Multiples vs Context

Multiple	Current	10yr median	Read
P / FCF	1.9x	2.3x	Customer balances inflate reported FCF
EV / FCF	-1.0x	—	Customer balances net against EV
EV / EBIT	-9.5x	—	Negative on customer-balance treatment
P / E (no NRI)	25.5x	—	Cleaner lens; still cheaper than Underlying PBT view
FCF Yield	54.86%	—	Inflated by customer deposit inflows

Why Underlying PBT, not FCF Wise holds £29.4bn of customer balances. Customer deposits flowing in (~£2.4bn in H1 FY26) inflate reported “cash from operations” and crush EV in a way unrelated to earning power. Every FCF- and EV-based multiple above is therefore distorted. Underlying PBT — revenue plus first 1% interest on customer balances minus operating costs — is the durable, non-cyclical earning measure management has anchored to. Price / Underlying PBT is ~43x; that is the only valuation lens that matters for Wise.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §8 ^[1]

5.2Reverse DCF — What the Market Prices In

Two-stage model on Underlying PBT, 10% discount rate, 20-year horizon. Underlying PBT/share ~£0.20 (£257m / ~1.3bn diluted shares). Current price ~£9.02.

Stage	Growth assumption	Terminal	Implied value
Growth stage (yrs 1–10)	~25%	—	—
Terminal stage (yrs 11+)	—	3%	—
Market-implied price	—	—	~£9.00

What this means The market is pricing ~25% Underlying PBT growth for a decade then 3% terminal. Underlying income is currently +18% (Q4 +24%) at a 13–16% margin band that caps PBT growth at income growth. The implied 25% is at the high end of current trajectory — achievable but leaves zero margin of safety.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §8 ^[1]

5.3DCF Scenarios

Scenario	Growth yrs 1–10	Terminal	Fair value	vs £9.02
Market implied	25%	3%	~£9.00	—
Bear (deceleration)	15%	3%	~£5.50	-39%
Base	20%	3%	~£7.20	-20%
Bull	30%	3%	~£11.80	+31%

Asymmetry skews negative at current price Bear case: -39%. Bull case: +31%. Base: -20%. Unlike most positions in the universe, the spread skews negative at recent levels. Cost basis of £6.90 (35x Underlying PBT) gives embedded value; the thesis to own is the runway (0.57% → 2% market share is ~3.5×) and the SES flywheel widening the moat each quarter, not multiple expansion.

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §8 ^[1]

Part 6

Risks

6.1Red flags, ranked by severity

Premium valuation with no margin of safetySeverity: medium (structural, ongoing). Price/Underlying PBT ~43x on FY26 implied Underlying PBT of ~£257m — the highest multiple in the portfolio. Premium is earned (24% income growth, 0.57% market share, accelerating flywheel) but 43x leaves no room for error. If underlying income growth decelerates from 20%+ to 15%, the stock reprices significantly. Cost basis of £6.90 (35x) gives embedded value; adding higher is paying for perfection.
Interest income sensitivity to rate cutsSeverity: medium (structural, managed). Wise earns interest on £29.4bn customer balances. In H1 FY26 total interest income was £297.4m but only £91.5m (first 1% yield) counts toward Underlying PBT. The ~£206m “above 1%” is treated as cyclical — honest framing. If central bank rates fell to zero, Underlying PBT unaffected by design, but reported PBT would fall ~40%. Above-1% interest fell from £230m (H1 FY25) to £206m (H1 FY26) as yields declined.
Regulatory complexity and compliance burdenSeverity: medium. 70+ licenses across 160+ countries. MMET consent order ($4.2m, July 2025) small in dollars but a reminder that examinations can produce penalties and remediation programs. Operating a regulated cross-border payments business globally means compliance costs grow with scale (corporate/infrastructure costs +35% in H1 FY26 to £131m). US OCC trust charter application pending — approval would be positive but the process is slow and uncertain.
Founder-CEO governance history (historical, resolved)Severity: low. Käärmann was publicly fined by HMRC in 2021 for a late self-assessment filing. Resolved. Not a current operational concern, but some institutional investors apply a governance discount. His ~£4bn stake means interests are aligned, but the historical matter persists in some ESG screens.
Take-rate compression (by design)Severity: low (not a concern at current trajectory). 67bps → 51bps over two years. In isolation looks like pricing pressure; in context, it is the strategy. Volume growth (25%+) has more than offset rate cuts at every step: FY26 underlying income +18% despite take-rate down 4bps. Risk would emerge only if volume growth slowed below ~10% while take-rates continued falling — not in sight at 0.57% market share.
Stablecoin / crypto disruption (reframed as opportunity)Severity: low. Consistent Wise position: stablecoins solve USD-to-USD. The hardest, most valuable problem (multi-currency local-payment-system conversion) is Wise's infrastructure. If stablecoins grow, Wise is the regulated on/off ramp. Company is explicitly “not making a bet on one payment scheme over another.”

SourceWISE-DOSSIER.md §6 ^[1]

Verdict

Hold · do not add at current price; do not sell

Stance: Hold. ~25.5x P/E and ~43x Underlying PBT with the market implying ~25% PBT growth for a decade. Bear (15%): -39%. Base (20%): -20%. Bull (30%): +31%. Do not add at current price; do not sell. Cost basis of ~£6.90 gives embedded value.
Add zone: £6.50–7.00 (~35x Underlying PBT) — meaningful margin of safety opens. Table-pounding at ~£5.50 (~30x).
Trim / reconsider trigger: Underlying income growth below 15% for two consecutive halves, OR take-rate below 40bps without gross margin improvement, OR CEO transition / governance deterioration.
Watching: FY26 full-year results (Jun/Jul 2026, first USD/US GAAP report), Nasdaq dual listing May 11, 2026, Wise Platform → 10% of volume, take-rate floor, above-1% interest income trajectory, OCC trust charter status.
Next review: FY26 full-year results — expected June or July 2026.

Last reviewed May 25, 2026 after Q4 FY26 Trading Update · Next review Jun–Jul 2026 (FY26 full-year)

References

Where every claim came from

[1]Company information/Wise/WISE-DOSSIER.mdLiving research-report source file, last updated 2026-05-25. Primary reference for all qualitative and quantitative content unless otherwise noted.
[2]Company information/Wise/WISE-earnings-analysis-FY2026.mdInternal earnings analysis covering FY2026 trading updates and H1 results.
[3]Company information/Wise/images_0b17713eb11c498dc0c048170c794501-WiseplcQ4FY26TradingUpdate(2).pdfQ4 FY26 Trading Update, dated 13 April 2026 — primary source for Q4 and full-year FY26 figures.
[4]Company information/Wise/images_04bfdcbc39ddf7b9cbd06aea398e014b-WISEplcH1FY26Results.pdf and WiseH1FY26AnalystPresentation.pdfH1 FY26 results (6 November 2025) and analyst presentation — primary source for take-rate, margin, and Platform commentary.
[5]Company information/Wise/images_ad736416f90791dbb49c7e59f1f45d8d-WiseFY2025AnnualReportAccounts.pdfFY2025 annual report and accounts — primary source for FY2025 figures and historical context.
[6]Company information/Wise/Wise plc (WIZEY) Q2 2026 Earnings C.md and Wise plc (WPLCF) Q4 2025 Earnings C.mdEarnings call transcripts — primary source for Käärmann and Thomassin commentary on pricing, Platform, and dual listing.
[7]Company information/Wise/Wise plc (WPLCF) Half Year Results fy2025.mdHalf-year results call transcript referenced for the FY25 margin surplus reinvestment commitment.
[8]Stock portfolio/Meta analysis from poorcharlie.io.txtScoring framework and 26-item additional-moat checklist; used for the structure of Part 2.4 only, not for Wise-specific content.
[9]Portfolio snapshot 30.05.2026.txtGuruFocus portfolio snapshot exported 2026-05-30; primary source for Part 4 ratios.

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